Hydrometeorological hazards during the winter periods in the Northern Caspian and dynamics under the influence of climatic changes

Hydrometeorological hazards of the Northern Caspian during winter periods 1950–2020—due to climatic changes were investigated. for period 1950–2020 are considered: severe periods, early ice freeze-up, storm waves, wind surge, as well cumulative hydrometeorological hazards—combinations waves and surge. Geographic information system (GIS) “Ice regime southern seas Russia” is basis study Sea. Storm activity in Sea reconstructed using SWAN spectral wave model. Based on freezing-degree days winters divided by severity—mild, moderate severe. During period, types prevail (59.4 %), number mild same amounts 14 pcs. (20.3 %) each type. Due climate change, increasing, ones decreasing. Since 1985, 3 (2002/03, 2007/08, 2011/12) have been recorded. As a result, cover area decreased ∼7–10 %, duration season at observation point Peshnoy was reduced 5 days. 157 situations combinations surge identified: 140 cases potential phenomena combination with speed 15 m/s or more winds effective directions. The largest dangerous than observed March. After 2000s there an increase November A direct relationship between severity has not found.